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Future Workforce - The Millennial Effect

Our traditional view of the workforce is set to change as the Millennial generation
  (those born between 1978 and 2000) hit the workforce. These new workers, the children of the Baby boomers, have very different expectations and experiences and have lived in a world touched by technology all their lives. How are companies going to attract, reward and retain this new generation and how are they different?

Download the latest white paper on Millennials below:

Download Future Workforce – the Millenial effect V2

Is Global Warming stifling innovation and creativity?

Water shortages and restrictions are going to a common factor for the future. This means we are going over the next few years to steer away from getting in the bath/tub in favour of showers that use a 10th of the water. This however could be a retrograde step when we consider innovation and creativity as most people have some of their best ideas whilst having a soak in a nice warm bath. From an early age, and for a certain generation, the nightly soak in the bath was a ritual and for many one that has carried on into later life where the tub has become a sanctuary - a place to think and contemplate and more importantly to have great ideas and solutions to problems.  

In the 60s, 70s and 80s the UK was the worlds powerhouse for innovation and creative thinking with many of the technologies we enjoy today, such as CDs, mobile technologies, computers and arguably even the internet were being invented and developed - ok so in many cases these were exploited by other countries - but I would guess that many of these ideas started in a nice warm bath!

The key question is if we had only had showers would we have in fact invented them at all?

The next question is is there a correlation between those countries who enjoy a good soak and their success on the world stage. This I suggest could be argued for the Nordic countries who are the powerhouse for mobile technologies and also like a good soak.

So back to the original question - will our move way from a soak in the bath stifle innovation and creativity and could this be a reason why we find ourselves in the position we do today - a global recession, having difficulty in defining out role on the worlds stage?

The shape of the recession and its impact on mail.

Almost on a daily basis we are hearing conflicting opinions on whether we are coming out of recession. House prices are starting to increase, unemployment is still increasing, consumer confidence is still low and retail sales are bubbling under. So what is happening?

There are a number of models of how recessions can play out and I thought it interesting to explore them and think about the consequences. There appears to be 4 or 5 different models of recession we have seen in the past.

• The classis is the ‘V’ recession where we see a sharp drop in the economy followed by a sharp rise. Although this ‘bounce’ can be over many months the result is the same in that the economic indicators etc. come back to a previous high within 12 – 18 months.
• The second model is the ‘W’ where there is a sharp drop in the economy that then recovers and then drops again. This is one, which has caught out business and governments in the past, as the second ‘bounce’ was not predicted. This model has a longer recovery period and can take up to 3 years for the economy to recover to something like its previous high.
• The third model is the ‘O’, which is a continuation of the recessionary effects over a longer period of time. This type of recession can last 10 years or more as seen in Japan. In this model customer confidence doesn’t fully recover, house prices remain at a low, unemployment remains high and governments struggle with stagflation.
• The fourth model, and I believe the one we are going to see in the current crisis, is the ‘L’ model where we see a steep drop in the economy and then a long, slow recovery – probably not seeing significant growth for 5 years or more. My thoughts are that we are probably not going to get back to 2007 levels until 2013 or 2014 and then only in certain areas.

(I was disappointed that I couldn’t find an E or an S model so I could have spelt Wolves!)

So what does this mean for the postal industry? One interesting point is that historically postal volumes have been a key indicator of recovery. Marketing mail was a leading indicator of economic recovery as companies started to see green shoots and felt confident enough to start sending marketing pieces out. Mail volumes have always been closely linked to new housing starts – again an indicator of recovery in the housing market. The last significant area is mail generated by the financial services sector that is a lagging indicator of economic growth.

As we see ‘E’ taking over from ‘P’ it will be interesting to see if the mail flips from a leading indicator of recovery or only as a lagging indicator which is relegated to advertising mail responding to economic recovery?

Whichever model plays out it is unlikely that we are going to see the economy fully recover to the over inflated levels we saw in 2007/2008 before the market crashed. House prices will rise, unemployment will start to reduce slowly from mid 2010, and interest rates will remain low for the next 9 – 12 months and then start to rise. This rise in interest rates is a good thing; believe it or not, as it can indicate a rise in customer confidence and signs of inflation that are controlled through interest rate rises.

Mail volumes are more difficult to predict as the current threatened strike action is bringing uncertainty for customer and is forcing companies to explore alternative delivery channels and of course a move online.

We will see over the coming months/years whether mail can survive as an effective communication channel and can weather this ‘perfect storm’.

Noise 2.0

Noise 2.0

 

I wrote in a Blog a few weeks ago about the move back to analogue when I came across a guy who was spending his spare time converting all his CD’s to Vinyl to reintroduce Noise back into what he was hearing. I also talked about the decline of the digital watch – when an impromptue survey at a technology conference found that less than 5% of the delegates were wearing digital watches – although nearly everybody owed up to the fact that they had owned one at some time.

 This weekend I was reading a piece in a magazine that was talking about the suprising increase in sales of camera film and the reneissance of the second hand camera market as photographers are moving back to analogue film to capture the ‘softness’ of the image. Fed up with the ‘perfection’ of digital and the manipulation that is needed/expected the true skill of the photogtapher is dissapearing.

 Another interesting sign is the trend of moving back to cash and away from card transactions. One of the interesting results of the credit crunch and subsequent economic crisis is that people are moving back to cash and governments around the world are having to review their production of cash – in the UK this has resulted in a rise in the demand for £5 notes. In the US a friend in a small upmarket fashion shop was having to take upwards of $5000 home everynight as the shop had no facility for cash deposit as historically the customers had only ever used credit cards.

 My thoughts, again, came back to the humble letter. If there is this huge move back to analogue then surely, with proper stimulation and marketing, there could be pheonix effect on the mailing industry. I must admit to being increasingly frustrated with the amount of email that now gets through the junk filter and on any morning I find myself having to delete 30 – 50 emails which are of no interest to me which takes 10 – 15 minutes of my time and as I have previously discussed an amount of carbon as each email is responsible for around 5 – 9 grams of carbon.

 Technology for the last 10 years has come to dominate our lives, taking more and more control of our everyday lives – whether this is through the way we communicate, our ability to create and changing our behaviour. This move back to ‘analogue’ seems to me to be about regaining control of our lives and actions – re-establishing our skills and capabilities.

 I would be interested to hear of any examples of ‘noise’ coming back into your lives.

Launch of i2f Publishing

Since getting back from the US at the end of June life has been pretty much tied up with getting our house sorted after a major flood in March caused over £12,000 of damage to walls and floors. However my routine of writing in the cafe every morning has continued and I have nearly finished 'careerScape - the art of writing an incredible resume'. I have decided to publish this myself this time as I have been disspointed with 'real publishers' and thought I could probably do a better job myself - time will tell.

In taking this approach I have been on a voyage of discovery about the publishing world and found that it is relatively easy to set up a publishing company and get your works, formatted, indexed, printed (at a very reasonable cost) and available to the public on Amazon and other online sites. So to this end I have set up i2f Publishing and am set to launch a printed and bound edition of careerScape in London at the end of October - with futureScape hopefully available in January 2010.

I have also written a guide to writing a book - based on my experience - which is a workbook aimed at the first time author, although I used the techniques described for careerScape and futureScape - the next book in the pipeline (you can probably get that there is a common theme here!) The guidebook and details of the publishing services is available on www.insight2foresight.com/publishing/. If you have an idea for a book or want to chat through any ideas get in touch and we can talk you through the 'process' (I hate to use that word!)

The consultancy market in the UK is pretty dire at the moment and everyone I have been in touch with has reported that there is 'no money' for consultants at the moment. This has been dissapointing, however it has given me time to focus on my writing for a while.

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Re-introducing Noise

At TED Global last week I was speaking to a guy who was spending a considerable time understanding how to transfer his CD collection back onto Vinyl - a crazy thing some may say but for me it raised the issue of the digital/analogue debate - is one better than the other and if so why.

The argument he presented was that with analogue there are imperfections in the music - there is noise that is imperceptible to many but to him this 'noise' was important as it provided a human aspect to the music. Digital reproduction has become so good that it filtered out most of the human factor and the 'noise' that was there in the original and just created a 'perfect' version of the music.

Speaking to this guy got me thinking about whether this move from digital back to analogue was a potentially wider phenomena and - have we got too used to the digital aspects of our life and if we have what have we lost in this move - what are the human aspects of the world we have lost.

Is it time to re-introduce 'noise' into our increasingly digitally perfect world?

At TED we heard from a range of speakers on very diverse topics and this idea of the move to analogue kept coming through in a number of presentations - the group who are mimicking the brain with a number of parallel processes which rather than throw pure horsepower at the problem are mimicking the way neurons work to create, at some time in the future, a sentient thing (I won't call it a being at this stage!). Or the Cynetics guy who is using sound to create patterns and then look at how these could be used in a practical sense, the proposal to build a wall of sand dunes across the Sahara desert to stop erosion and create habitats - none of these are 'digital' in the way we understand it rely on analogue forms of design and interpretation.

The other thing I did whilst I was at the conference was to try and count the number of digital watches that people wore. If I went back 5 years there would have been a majority of people with them, however at the conference I guess that over 70% wore analogue watches. Now I know that this could be a style thing or a design thing, but my own view is that it is easier to read - we find the analogue face easier to interpret than the numbers - we like fuzziness.

I would be interested in your views.

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TED Global 2009 - Oxford - Day 2 Session 3

One of the great things about TED is the people you meet at lunch. Today I sat with a guy called Chris Wild who has developed an amazing service/site called the Retroscope which is a pictorial Time-Machine - allowing you to choose a location anywhere in the world and a time and see images and stories from that location. He has also developed an iPhone app which provide a historic time photos of wherever you are - obviously using the locational capabilities of the phone to find your location.

The session this afternoon is entitled Hidden Algorithm and the first speaker is Beau Lotto. Every living thing has learnt to see and differentiate colour. What is colour for - it enables to see the differences in surfaces rather than just the shadows. 

The light that falls into your eye is meaningless  - because it could mean anything.

He showed another of optical illusions which we see because of our brain processes and fills in the data as it thinks from our experience it should be. Colour is used to help the brain continually redefine reality. We can make music with colour - what would our images look like if we could hear colour.

None is an outside observer as nature - we are defined by our ecology. Only through uncertainty can we define ourselves.

The second speaker of this session is Rebecca Saxe described as Popular Scientists as one of the top 10 young scientists of the time - her talk is the problem of other minds. The problems we could consider:

•  Do other people have minds
• Why is so hard to know other minds 
• How is so easy to understand other minds

The last is the problem she is going to consider today. She is going to talk about a special part of the brain which focusses on how we understand other people thoughts - this part of the brain is only used for this and for nothing else - it is on the right side of the brain just above the ear.

Rebecca showed a couple of videos which showed the difference in false belief and moral judgement between 3 and 5 year olds and it isn't till they get to seven that they start to think about other peoples thoughts. People come especially equipped to think about other people thoughts although it takes a long time to develop - into late childhood.

The third speaker is  Henry Markram who is leader of the blue brain project which is aiming to build a realistic computational model of the human brain. The project is looking to understand of how the brain works - the concept is that the brian builds a model of the universe and projects it into space around us - a perceptual bubble. Ninety nine percent of what we see is not what is coming in through the eyes it is what we perceive it to be - what will fill in, what we infer.

The brain continues to evolve today at an alarming rate. What Henry has been doing has been to catalogue the neurones - what they do and how they communicate - the branches interconnect in a number of locations and at these interconnections they can form synapses.  What they have produced is a map of the fabric of the brain. They make this come alive through algorithms - and the maths how they collect information and how they communicate. This mats can describe this process - a handful of equations.

In summary the universe may have evolved the brain to see itself. There is more to do to make this a reality.

The next speaker James Geary who spoke yesterday on aphorisms is also interested in metaphor. We utter around 6 metaphors a minute it is how we learn, think and communicate. Elvis Presley is the king of metaphor and has himself become a metaphor. Aristotle's definition - "the process the thing a name that belongs to something else". In Shakespeare in Romeo and Juliet he uses - "Juliet is the Sun"

How do we use metaphors - it is the creation and understanding of patterns. We cannot ignore the literal meaning of words. So what is metaphor for? It creates expectations, it influences decisions by providing analogies and we cant ignore them. 

The roots of metaphor - language is fossil poetry (Ralph Waldo Emmerson). 

Manual Lima is talking about network visualisation - an interaction designer for Nokia in London. How is  the network visualised - visualcomplexity.com was a site created from all the different ways networks can be visualised. Networks are omnipresent and are very difficult to map - organised complexity - first described by Warren Weaver. 

Current Trends - to try and map the blogosphere from looking at particular political blogs in the US through to trying to map the whole hyperbolic blogoshpere. Similarly Flikr can be mapped - tracing the visitors eye. For GPS projects such as OpenStreetMap.org which is a map created by users GPS, GPSDrawing.org is a website that allows drawing on a physical space using GPS. A lot of money and time has been invested in mapping terrorist network - particularly around the asymmetric network characteristics.

The next speaker is David Deutsch from Clarandon laboratory at Oxford University, who is talking about the Nature of Scientific Explanation. There has always been a yearning to know about the unseen. There need to be a revolution in the way people think about knowledge and finding it out. What distinguished science - Motto of Royal Society in 1660 - 'Take no-ones word for it'. 

Bad explanations are easy to vary

Good explanations are hard to vary

Questions from Chris Anderson: How is Quantum computing going? Cluster Quantum computation is the way quantum computing is going to be implemented.

Toyota IQ - experience and thoughts

A couple of weeks ago we took delivery of a new Toyota IQ as a second car. We looked round to try and find something that would be cheap to run, comfortable, stylish and above all would hold its value over time. After the pre-requisite research we decided on the IQ as it offered 62 miles to the gallon and had a very low CO2 (99gms) and therefore we don't have to pay road tax in the UK.

First impressions have been very good and it is impressive how much room there is in the car. The finish of the car is OK - it is certainly not plush in there, but it is comparable with other cars in its class. We went for the IQ2 which gives us keyless entry, climate control and a few other things. The interior plastic is a little 'harsh' and I am not sure how it will fair over time but only time will tell.

We had a few problems with the dealer not being able to deliver on time and I assumed that there would be discounts around in light of the recession. Our experience was that as demand for the car was high there was little or no discount available and delivery was what it was - take it or leave it. We ended up getting the metallic paint included in the list price so not much discount and it looks like prices are dropping as more vehicles become available and I assume demand is dropping.

Design of the vehicle itself is very good and it is one of those cars that you either love or hate. The 'packaging' though is excellent and very innovative giving the car maximum space inside. This includes turning the engine and putting the gearbox and transmission at the front. The mission for the design team was to build a 4 seat car less than 3 metres long - this meant that they had to use every inch of space. Innovations include thin seats, a new centre take off differential, a small air conditioning unit, a slim underfloor fuel tank and an asymmetric dashboard that maximises passenger room.

Yesterday was my first longish journey in the car as I had to drive to Oxford for TED Global 2009. I was pleasantly surprised with the ride and the road test reports I had read which report that it is not really suitable for motorway travel I think are wrong. OK the car is not fast and overtaking has to be planned but with the amount of traffic on UK roads I don't think this is a real problem.

In terms of economy we seem to be getting around 50 - 55 miles per gallon which is less than advertised but I guess it is down to the style of driving and the engine will loosen up over time. I read yesterday that Aston Martin are looking to re-badge the car as a low end Aston with a few body modifications and a complete  interior refit. It will be interesting to see how it turns out and if this is a good move for Aston.

Our other car a VW Tiguan still amazes me where you can get an SUV which is returning 47 mpg - OK this is diesel and there are questions about the particulate emissions from diesel engines but in terms of economy it is excellent.

I will keep you posted on our experience

Update

The last couple of months have seen a lack of blog posts as I plan and organize my move back to the UK and the end of my contract with Pitney Bowes in the US. I am now finally organized and on track for the next adventure which is going to be a 7500 mile road-trip across the USA which starts on Friday the 8th of May.

the Road-Trip will take me across the north of the US via Chicago, Rapid City, Salt Lake City, Canyon Lands and Arches National Park - then up to Grand Teton and Yellowstone followed by Glacier National Park, Banff and Jasper with a brief stopover in Calgary and then back to New York to fly back to the UK on the 17th of June.

My time in the US has been really enjoyable and I have learnt so much both in terms of my business understanding but also about myself. I have made many great friends both at work and in the ex-pat community and I am looking forward to maintaining these new friendships as I move on to the next challenge - finding gainful employment back in the UK!

The Identity Nightmare

I had one of those calls last night that we all dread - the credit card company phoning up to verify some transactions - and yes someone had cloned my card or got my details and had spent $8000 online.

The first thought is panic - what does this mean - what else have they got? The reality is very little as the credit card company seems to be liable for the losses and my exposure is $50 or so it seems. Yes we have the inconvenience of being without credit cards for a few days and we have to fill in a few forms to verify that we didn't make these transactions but apart from that it doesn't appear that we are affected too much. There is the possible problem of it affecting our credit rating I guess but that doesn't seem to be the case when I spoke to the company last night.

The great thing is is that someone is watching my account for me and trapping these unusual transactions. I assume they are looking for abnormal patterns in behavior and then bringing up exceptions. Or maybe I just have my own person whatching what I spend my money on - scary!

The transactions came from Utah and Iowa and although I have visited Utah this year I didn't visit the town where the transaction originated and I have never been to Iowa and to be honest I wouldn't know where it was (note to self: geography lesson on american states due!).

I was trying to think about if I had done something that compromised my security and I can't think of anything abnormal. In the US nobody bothers to check your signature unlike the UK where everything is Chip and Pin. When you buy things online you put in all your details so it would only take someone to copy them I guess. I then got to thinking about how you could reduce the risk and with the current systems there doesn't seem to be a way round it other than a redesign of the US banking system which I guess is a bit out of scope!

There area few systems that purport to overcome the problem of fraud by acting as third parties in the transaction and using some sort of token/dongle which is used on the computer you are working from. Whether these are secure or not I am not sure but I think this weekends task is to investigate and see if there is a way I can tighten my security up a bit. I will report back!

What I will say is well done HSBC for spotting the problem and sorting things out so well. The more I interact with them as a company the more impressed I am!